NAP vs INT
Napoli (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 32.9% fair 3.04
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
INT win 43.7% fair 2.29
Expected Goals
NAP
1.46
—
1.76
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 INT | 10.3% | |
| NAP 1-2 INT | 9.0% | |
| NAP 2-1 INT | 7.5% | |
| NAP 0-1 INT | 7.1% | |
| NAP 2-2 INT | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).