NAP vs JUV
Napoli (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 44.7% fair 2.24
Draw 25.7% fair 3.90
JUV win 29.7% fair 3.37
Expected Goals
NAP
1.51
—
1.17
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 JUV | 12.1% | |
| NAP 1-0 JUV | 10.3% | |
| NAP 2-1 JUV | 9.1% | |
| NAP 0-1 JUV | 8.0% | |
| NAP 2-0 JUV | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).