NAP vs LAZ
Napoli (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
NAP win 52.9% fair 1.89
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
LAZ win 22.3% fair 4.48
Expected Goals
NAP
1.65
—
0.93
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-0 LAZ | 12.5% | |
| NAP 1-1 LAZ | 11.6% | |
| NAP 2-0 LAZ | 10.3% | |
| NAP 2-1 LAZ | 9.6% | |
| NAP 0-0 LAZ | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).