NAP vs LAZ
Napoli (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 47.1% fair 2.12
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
LAZ win 27.2% fair 3.67
Expected Goals
NAP
1.53
—
1.08
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 LAZ | 12.1% | |
| NAP 1-0 LAZ | 11.2% | |
| NAP 2-1 LAZ | 9.3% | |
| NAP 2-0 LAZ | 8.6% | |
| NAP 0-1 LAZ | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).