NAP vs LEC
Napoli (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
NAP win 61.5% fair 1.62
Draw 22.1% fair 4.52
LEC win 16.3% fair 6.12
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.3% / 21.4% / 14.3%.
Expected Goals
NAP
1.90
—
0.76
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | fair 2.21 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-0 LEC | 13.3% | |
| NAP 2-0 LEC | 12.6% | |
| NAP 1-1 LEC | 10.1% | |
| NAP 2-1 LEC | 9.6% | |
| NAP 3-0 LEC | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).