NAP vs LEC
Napoli (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 63.7% fair 1.57
Draw 20.9% fair 4.78
LEC win 15.4% fair 6.49
Expected Goals
NAP
2.02
—
0.79
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-0 LEC | 12.3% | |
| NAP 1-0 LEC | 12.2% | |
| NAP 2-1 LEC | 9.7% | |
| NAP 1-1 LEC | 9.6% | |
| NAP 3-0 LEC | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).