NAP vs MIL
Napoli (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 42.1% fair 2.37
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
MIL win 32.2% fair 3.10
Expected Goals
NAP
1.47
—
1.26
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 MIL | 12.1% | |
| NAP 1-0 MIL | 9.6% | |
| NAP 2-1 MIL | 8.9% | |
| NAP 0-1 MIL | 8.2% | |
| NAP 1-2 MIL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).