NAP vs MIL
Napoli (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
NAP win 45.7% fair 2.19
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
MIL win 28.6% fair 3.49
Expected Goals
NAP
1.52
—
1.14
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 MIL | 12.1% | |
| NAP 1-0 MIL | 10.7% | |
| NAP 2-1 MIL | 9.2% | |
| NAP 2-0 MIL | 8.1% | |
| NAP 0-1 MIL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).