NAP vs MON
Napoli (home) vs Monza · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 65.6% fair 1.52
Draw 18.8% fair 5.31
MON win 15.6% fair 6.41
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.3% / 17.5% / 13.2%.
Expected Goals
NAP
2.38
—
0.94
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-0 MON | 10.2% | |
| NAP 2-1 MON | 9.6% | |
| NAP 1-0 MON | 8.6% | |
| NAP 3-0 MON | 8.1% | |
| NAP 1-1 MON | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).