NAP vs PAR
Napoli (home) vs Parma · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 62.6% fair 1.60
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
PAR win 15.4% fair 6.50
Expected Goals
NAP
1.88
—
0.72
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 43.6% | fair 2.29 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-0 PAR | 13.9% | |
| NAP 2-0 PAR | 13.1% | |
| NAP 1-1 PAR | 10.0% | |
| NAP 2-1 PAR | 9.5% | |
| NAP 3-0 PAR | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).