NAP vs ROM
Napoli (home) vs Roma · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 3-3 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
NAP win 36.8% fair 2.72
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
ROM win 37.8% fair 2.64
Expected Goals
NAP
1.38
—
1.43
ROM
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): NAP ×1.100 (matched 10), ROM ×1.100 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 ROM | 11.9% | |
| NAP 0-1 ROM | 8.6% | |
| NAP 1-2 ROM | 8.5% | |
| NAP 1-0 ROM | 8.3% | |
| NAP 2-1 ROM | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).