NAP vs ROM
Napoli (home) vs Roma · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
NAP win 41.4% fair 2.42
Draw 25.8% fair 3.87
ROM win 32.8% fair 3.05
Expected Goals
NAP
1.44
—
1.26
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 ROM | 12.2% | |
| NAP 1-0 ROM | 9.7% | |
| NAP 2-1 ROM | 8.8% | |
| NAP 0-1 ROM | 8.5% | |
| NAP 1-2 ROM | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).