NAP vs SAS
Napoli (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 61.2% fair 1.63
Draw 20.3% fair 4.93
SAS win 18.5% fair 5.41
Expected Goals
NAP
2.21
—
1.06
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.73 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-1 SAS | 9.8% | |
| NAP 2-0 SAS | 9.3% | |
| NAP 1-1 SAS | 8.9% | |
| NAP 1-0 SAS | 8.4% | |
| NAP 3-1 SAS | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).