NAP vs TOR
Napoli (home) vs Torino · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
NAP win 64.1% fair 1.56
Draw 19.7% fair 5.08
TOR win 16.3% fair 6.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 67.2% / 18.6% / 14.2%.
Expected Goals
NAP
2.25
—
0.93
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-0 TOR | 10.6% | |
| NAP 2-1 TOR | 9.8% | |
| NAP 1-0 TOR | 9.4% | |
| NAP 1-1 TOR | 8.7% | |
| NAP 3-0 TOR | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).