NAP vs TOR
Napoli (home) vs Torino · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 60.2% fair 1.66
Draw 21.0% fair 4.77
TOR win 18.9% fair 5.30
Expected Goals
NAP
2.11
—
1.02
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-1 TOR | 9.9% | |
| NAP 2-0 TOR | 9.7% | |
| NAP 1-1 TOR | 9.4% | |
| NAP 1-0 TOR | 9.2% | |
| NAP 3-1 TOR | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).