NAP vs UDI
Napoli (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 61.4% fair 1.63
Draw 20.8% fair 4.82
UDI win 17.8% fair 5.61
Expected Goals
NAP
2.11
—
0.97
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-0 UDI | 10.3% | |
| NAP 2-1 UDI | 9.9% | |
| NAP 1-0 UDI | 9.7% | |
| NAP 1-1 UDI | 9.4% | |
| NAP 3-0 UDI | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).