NAP vs VEN
Napoli (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 68.0% fair 1.47
Draw 18.5% fair 5.42
VEN win 13.5% fair 7.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 72.3% / 17.1% / 10.6%.
Expected Goals
NAP
2.32
—
0.77
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.3% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-0 VEN | 12.3% | |
| NAP 1-0 VEN | 10.6% | |
| NAP 3-0 VEN | 9.5% | |
| NAP 2-1 VEN | 9.4% | |
| NAP 1-1 VEN | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).