PAR vs ATA
Parma (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 27.8% fair 3.60
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
ATA win 46.2% fair 2.17
Expected Goals
PAR
1.03
—
1.50
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 ATA | 12.3% | |
| PAR 0-1 ATA | 12.0% | |
| PAR 1-2 ATA | 9.2% | |
| PAR 0-2 ATA | 9.0% | |
| PAR 1-0 ATA | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).