PAR vs BOL
Parma (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 30.1% fair 3.32
Draw 27.9% fair 3.58
BOL win 42.0% fair 2.38
Expected Goals
PAR
1.00
—
1.29
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | fair 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 0-1 BOL | 13.1% | |
| PAR 1-1 BOL | 13.1% | |
| PAR 0-0 BOL | 10.1% | |
| PAR 1-0 BOL | 10.1% | |
| PAR 0-2 BOL | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).