PAR vs BOL
Parma (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
PAR win 32.9% fair 3.04
Draw 28.0% fair 3.57
BOL win 39.1% fair 2.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.4% / 28.2% / 40.4%.
Expected Goals
PAR
1.06
—
1.24
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 BOL | 13.2% | |
| PAR 0-1 BOL | 12.4% | |
| PAR 1-0 BOL | 10.6% | |
| PAR 0-0 BOL | 10.0% | |
| PAR 1-2 BOL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).