PAR vs CAG
Parma (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
PAR win 38.3% fair 2.61
Draw 28.4% fair 3.52
CAG win 33.3% fair 3.00
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.7% / 28.7% / 33.7%.
Expected Goals
PAR
1.17
—
1.09
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.2% | fair 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 CAG | 13.3% | |
| PAR 1-0 CAG | 12.2% | |
| PAR 0-1 CAG | 11.4% | |
| PAR 0-0 CAG | 10.5% | |
| PAR 2-1 CAG | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).