PAR vs CAG
Parma (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 75% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
PAR win 39.8% fair 2.51
Draw 27.9% fair 3.58
CAG win 32.2% fair 3.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.4% / 28.1% / 32.5%.
Expected Goals
PAR
1.23
—
1.09
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | fair 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 CAG | 13.2% | |
| PAR 1-0 CAG | 12.1% | |
| PAR 0-1 CAG | 10.7% | |
| PAR 0-0 CAG | 9.8% | |
| PAR 2-1 CAG | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).