PAR vs COM
Parma (home) vs Como · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 21.5% fair 4.64
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
COM win 53.6% fair 1.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.7% / 24.6% / 56.7%.
Expected Goals
PAR
0.82
—
1.63
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 0-1 COM | 14.1% | |
| PAR 1-1 COM | 11.5% | |
| PAR 0-2 COM | 11.5% | |
| PAR 1-2 COM | 9.4% | |
| PAR 0-0 COM | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 14.1 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).