PAR vs FIO
Parma (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
PAR win 39.9% fair 2.50
Draw 28.2% fair 3.55
FIO win 31.9% fair 3.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.6% / 28.3% / 32.1%.
Expected Goals
PAR
1.22
—
1.07
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | fair 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 FIO | 13.2% | |
| PAR 1-0 FIO | 12.4% | |
| PAR 0-1 FIO | 10.8% | |
| PAR 0-0 FIO | 10.1% | |
| PAR 2-1 FIO | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).