PAR vs FIO
Parma (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 39.0% fair 2.56
Draw 27.5% fair 3.63
FIO win 33.4% fair 2.99
Expected Goals
PAR
1.25
—
1.15
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 FIO | 13.0% | |
| PAR 1-0 FIO | 11.3% | |
| PAR 0-1 FIO | 10.4% | |
| PAR 0-0 FIO | 9.1% | |
| PAR 2-1 FIO | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).