PAR vs FRO
Parma (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 39.3% fair 2.54
Draw 27.3% fair 3.67
FRO win 33.4% fair 2.99
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.8% / 27.3% / 33.9%.
Expected Goals
PAR
1.27
—
1.17
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 FRO | 12.9% | |
| PAR 1-0 FRO | 11.1% | |
| PAR 0-1 FRO | 10.2% | |
| PAR 0-0 FRO | 8.7% | |
| PAR 2-1 FRO | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).