PAR vs GEN
Parma (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
PAR win 39.3% fair 2.54
Draw 28.4% fair 3.52
GEN win 32.3% fair 3.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.9% / 28.6% / 32.5%.
Expected Goals
PAR
1.19
—
1.06
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.2% | fair 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.8% | fair 1.65 |
| Both teams to score | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 GEN | 13.3% | |
| PAR 1-0 GEN | 12.5% | |
| PAR 0-1 GEN | 11.1% | |
| PAR 0-0 GEN | 10.5% | |
| PAR 2-1 GEN | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).