PAR vs INT
Parma (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 15.7% fair 6.36
Draw 19.3% fair 5.17
INT win 64.9% fair 1.54
Expected Goals
PAR
0.85
—
2.22
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.9% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 0-2 INT | 11.5% | |
| PAR 0-1 INT | 10.4% | |
| PAR 1-2 INT | 9.7% | |
| PAR 1-1 INT | 8.8% | |
| PAR 0-3 INT | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).