PAR vs JUV
Parma (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 24.3% fair 4.11
Draw 26.4% fair 3.78
JUV win 49.2% fair 2.03
Expected Goals
PAR
0.87
—
1.48
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 0-1 JUV | 14.0% | |
| PAR 1-1 JUV | 12.3% | |
| PAR 0-2 JUV | 10.4% | |
| PAR 0-0 JUV | 9.5% | |
| PAR 1-2 JUV | 9.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).