PAR vs LAZ
Parma (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 25.5% fair 3.92
Draw 26.7% fair 3.74
LAZ win 47.8% fair 2.09
Expected Goals
PAR
0.90
—
1.45
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 0-1 LAZ | 13.8% | |
| PAR 1-1 LAZ | 12.5% | |
| PAR 0-2 LAZ | 10.0% | |
| PAR 0-0 LAZ | 9.5% | |
| PAR 1-2 LAZ | 9.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.8 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).