PAR vs LEC
Parma (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 40.1% fair 2.49
Draw 29.0% fair 3.45
LEC win 30.9% fair 3.24
Expected Goals
PAR
1.17
—
0.99
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Both teams to score | 43.4% | fair 2.30 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-0 LEC | 13.5% | |
| PAR 1-1 LEC | 13.4% | |
| PAR 0-0 LEC | 11.5% | |
| PAR 0-1 LEC | 11.4% | |
| PAR 2-0 LEC | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).