PAR vs MIL
Parma (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 22.5% fair 4.44
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
MIL win 52.1% fair 1.92
Expected Goals
PAR
0.85
—
1.59
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 0-1 MIL | 13.8% | |
| PAR 1-1 MIL | 11.8% | |
| PAR 0-2 MIL | 11.0% | |
| PAR 1-2 MIL | 9.4% | |
| PAR 0-0 MIL | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).