PAR vs NAP
Parma (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 22.9% fair 4.37
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
NAP win 51.6% fair 1.94
Expected Goals
PAR
0.87
—
1.57
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 0-1 NAP | 13.7% | |
| PAR 1-1 NAP | 11.9% | |
| PAR 0-2 NAP | 10.8% | |
| PAR 1-2 NAP | 9.3% | |
| PAR 0-0 NAP | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.7 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).