PAR vs ROM
Parma (home) vs Roma · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
PAR win 23.6% fair 4.24
Draw 25.9% fair 3.87
ROM win 50.6% fair 1.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.9% / 25.7% / 53.4%.
Expected Goals
PAR
0.86
—
1.54
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 0-1 ROM | 14.0% | |
| PAR 1-1 ROM | 12.0% | |
| PAR 0-2 ROM | 10.8% | |
| PAR 1-2 ROM | 9.3% | |
| PAR 0-0 ROM | 9.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).