PAR vs ROM
Parma (home) vs Roma · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 18.9% fair 5.29
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
ROM win 57.7% fair 1.73
Expected Goals
PAR
0.79
—
1.77
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | fair 2.21 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 0-1 ROM | 13.7% | |
| PAR 0-2 ROM | 12.1% | |
| PAR 1-1 ROM | 10.8% | |
| PAR 1-2 ROM | 9.6% | |
| PAR 0-0 ROM | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).