PAR vs SAS
Parma (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 36.3% fair 2.76
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
SAS win 37.4% fair 2.68
Expected Goals
PAR
1.28
—
1.34
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 SAS | 12.5% | |
| PAR 0-1 SAS | 9.8% | |
| PAR 1-0 SAS | 9.3% | |
| PAR 1-2 SAS | 8.4% | |
| PAR 2-1 SAS | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).