PAR vs TOR
Parma (home) vs Torino · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
PAR win 41.5% fair 2.41
Draw 27.0% fair 3.71
TOR win 31.5% fair 3.17
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.4% / 27.0% / 31.6%.
Expected Goals
PAR
1.34
—
1.13
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 TOR | 12.8% | |
| PAR 1-0 TOR | 11.3% | |
| PAR 0-1 TOR | 9.5% | |
| PAR 2-1 TOR | 8.6% | |
| PAR 0-0 TOR | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).