PAR vs UDI
Parma (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 37.1% fair 2.70
Draw 27.3% fair 3.66
UDI win 35.6% fair 2.81
Expected Goals
PAR
1.22
—
1.22
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 UDI | 13.0% | |
| PAR 1-0 UDI | 10.6% | |
| PAR 0-1 UDI | 10.6% | |
| PAR 0-0 UDI | 8.7% | |
| PAR 2-1 UDI | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).