PAR vs UDI
Parma (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
PAR win 34.8% fair 2.87
Draw 28.2% fair 3.54
UDI win 37.0% fair 2.71
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.6% / 28.4% / 38.0%.
Expected Goals
PAR
1.10
—
1.19
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | fair 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-1 UDI | 13.3% | |
| PAR 0-1 UDI | 12.1% | |
| PAR 1-0 UDI | 11.2% | |
| PAR 0-0 UDI | 10.2% | |
| PAR 1-2 UDI | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).