PAR vs VEN
Parma (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
PAR win 45.0% fair 2.22
Draw 27.5% fair 3.64
VEN win 27.5% fair 3.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.5% / 27.6% / 26.9%.
Expected Goals
PAR
1.35
—
0.97
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.9% | fair 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
Most Likely Scores
| PAR 1-0 VEN | 13.3% | |
| PAR 1-1 VEN | 12.9% | |
| PAR 0-0 VEN | 9.8% | |
| PAR 0-1 VEN | 9.5% | |
| PAR 2-0 VEN | 9.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAR goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).