ROM vs ATA
Roma (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ROM win 57.3% fair 1.74
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
ATA win 20.0% fair 5.00
Expected Goals
ROM
1.88
—
0.95
ATA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ROM ×1.100 (matched 11), ATA ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 1-0 ATA | 11.1% | |
| ROM 1-1 ATA | 10.5% | |
| ROM 2-0 ATA | 10.4% | |
| ROM 2-1 ATA | 9.9% | |
| ROM 3-0 ATA | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).