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EPL · 2026-27 Serie A · 2026-27 La Liga · 2026-27 Bundesliga · 2026-27 Ligue 1 · 2026-27

ROM vs ATA

Roma (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 80%

Match Outcome

ROM win 49.7% fair 2.01
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
ATA win 25.6% fair 3.90

Expected Goals

ROM 1.67 1.09 ATA
Over 2.5 goals52.0%fair 1.92
Under 2.5 goals48.0%fair 2.09
Both teams to score53.9%fair 1.86

Most Likely Scores

ROM 1-1 ATA11.5%
ROM 1-0 ATA10.6%
ROM 2-1 ATA9.6%
ROM 2-0 ATA8.8%
ROM 0-1 ATA6.9%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 6.3 6.9 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 10.6 11.5 6.3 2.3 0.6 0.2
2 8.8 9.6 5.2 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 4.9 5.3 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 2.0 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
5+ 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0

Rows: ROM goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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