ROM vs BOL
Roma (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 60.0% fair 1.67
Draw 21.5% fair 4.65
BOL win 18.5% fair 5.41
Expected Goals
ROM
2.01
—
0.96
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 BOL | 10.4% | |
| ROM 1-0 BOL | 10.3% | |
| ROM 2-1 BOL | 9.9% | |
| ROM 1-1 BOL | 9.9% | |
| ROM 3-0 BOL | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).