ROM vs CAG
Roma (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
ROM win 61.4% fair 1.63
Draw 21.3% fair 4.70
CAG win 17.3% fair 5.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.2% / 20.5% / 15.4%.
Expected Goals
ROM
2.03
—
0.88
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 CAG | 11.2% | |
| ROM 1-0 CAG | 11.1% | |
| ROM 2-1 CAG | 9.9% | |
| ROM 1-1 CAG | 9.7% | |
| ROM 3-0 CAG | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).