ROM vs CAG
Roma (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 65.5% fair 1.53
Draw 20.0% fair 5.00
CAG win 14.5% fair 6.92
Expected Goals
ROM
2.11
—
0.78
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.9% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 CAG | 12.4% | |
| ROM 1-0 CAG | 11.8% | |
| ROM 2-1 CAG | 9.6% | |
| ROM 1-1 CAG | 9.1% | |
| ROM 3-0 CAG | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).