ROM vs FIO
Roma (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 78% · pregame locked (08-24 · FT 4-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ROM win 59.1% fair 1.69
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
FIO win 18.7% fair 5.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.7% / 21.5% / 16.8%.
Expected Goals
ROM
1.94
—
0.90
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 1-0 FIO | 11.4% | |
| ROM 2-0 FIO | 11.0% | |
| ROM 1-1 FIO | 10.2% | |
| ROM 2-1 FIO | 9.9% | |
| ROM 3-0 FIO | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).