ROM vs FIO
Roma (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
ROM win 63.3% fair 1.58
Draw 20.4% fair 4.89
FIO win 16.2% fair 6.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.4% / 19.5% / 14.1%.
Expected Goals
ROM
2.12
—
0.86
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 FIO | 11.4% | |
| ROM 1-0 FIO | 10.7% | |
| ROM 2-1 FIO | 9.8% | |
| ROM 1-1 FIO | 9.2% | |
| ROM 3-0 FIO | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).