ROM vs FRO
Roma (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 68.6% fair 1.46
Draw 17.7% fair 5.64
FRO win 13.6% fair 7.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 73.0% / 16.2% / 10.8%.
Expected Goals
ROM
2.47
—
0.84
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.7% | fair 2.80 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 FRO | 11.1% | |
| ROM 2-1 FRO | 9.4% | |
| ROM 3-0 FRO | 9.2% | |
| ROM 1-0 FRO | 9.0% | |
| ROM 3-1 FRO | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).