ROM vs GEN
Roma (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 2-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.02
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ROM win 70.6% fair 1.42
Draw 17.1% fair 5.86
GEN win 12.3% fair 8.13
Expected Goals
ROM
2.48
—
0.80
GEN
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ROM ×1.100 (matched 10), GEN ×1.025 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.3% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 GEN | 11.5% | |
| ROM 3-0 GEN | 9.5% | |
| ROM 1-0 GEN | 9.3% | |
| ROM 2-1 GEN | 9.3% | |
| ROM 3-1 GEN | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).