ROM vs GEN
Roma (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
ROM win 62.6% fair 1.60
Draw 20.8% fair 4.80
GEN win 16.6% fair 6.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 65.5% / 20.0% / 14.5%.
Expected Goals
ROM
2.08
—
0.86
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 GEN | 11.4% | |
| ROM 1-0 GEN | 11.0% | |
| ROM 2-1 GEN | 9.8% | |
| ROM 1-1 GEN | 9.5% | |
| ROM 3-0 GEN | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).