ROM vs INT
Roma (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (09-19 · FT 2-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ROM win 40.0% fair 2.50
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
INT win 36.3% fair 2.76
Expected Goals
ROM
1.64
—
1.57
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 1-1 INT | 10.4% | |
| ROM 2-1 INT | 8.5% | |
| ROM 1-2 INT | 8.2% | |
| ROM 2-2 INT | 6.7% | |
| ROM 1-0 INT | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).