ROM vs JUV
Roma (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
ROM win 44.9% fair 2.23
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
JUV win 29.6% fair 3.38
Expected Goals
ROM
1.52
—
1.18
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 1-1 JUV | 12.0% | |
| ROM 1-0 JUV | 10.2% | |
| ROM 2-1 JUV | 9.2% | |
| ROM 0-1 JUV | 7.9% | |
| ROM 2-0 JUV | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).