ROM vs JUV
Roma (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 51.2% fair 1.95
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
JUV win 24.4% fair 4.09
Expected Goals
ROM
1.70
—
1.06
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 1-1 JUV | 11.4% | |
| ROM 1-0 JUV | 10.7% | |
| ROM 2-1 JUV | 9.7% | |
| ROM 2-0 JUV | 9.1% | |
| ROM 0-1 JUV | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).