ROM vs LAZ
Roma (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 53.8% fair 1.86
Draw 23.3% fair 4.30
LAZ win 22.9% fair 4.37
Expected Goals
ROM
1.83
—
1.07
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 1-1 LAZ | 10.8% | |
| ROM 1-0 LAZ | 10.1% | |
| ROM 2-1 LAZ | 9.9% | |
| ROM 2-0 LAZ | 9.2% | |
| ROM 3-1 LAZ | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).