ROM vs LEC
Roma (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 70.6% fair 1.42
Draw 17.5% fair 5.72
LEC win 11.9% fair 8.42
Expected Goals
ROM
2.37
—
0.73
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.1% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 LEC | 12.6% | |
| ROM 1-0 LEC | 10.7% | |
| ROM 3-0 LEC | 10.0% | |
| ROM 2-1 LEC | 9.2% | |
| ROM 1-1 LEC | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).