ROM vs MIL
Roma (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 48.7% fair 2.05
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
MIL win 26.7% fair 3.75
Expected Goals
ROM
1.66
—
1.14
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 1-1 MIL | 11.5% | |
| ROM 1-0 MIL | 10.1% | |
| ROM 2-1 MIL | 9.5% | |
| ROM 2-0 MIL | 8.4% | |
| ROM 0-1 MIL | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).