ROM vs MON
Roma (home) vs Monza · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 71.4% fair 1.40
Draw 16.2% fair 6.16
MON win 12.4% fair 8.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 76.0% / 14.6% / 9.5%.
Expected Goals
ROM
2.68
—
0.85
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.5% | fair 3.18 |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 MON | 10.5% | |
| ROM 3-0 MON | 9.4% | |
| ROM 2-1 MON | 9.0% | |
| ROM 3-1 MON | 8.0% | |
| ROM 1-0 MON | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).