ROM vs MON
Roma (home) vs Monza · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
ROM win 67.1% fair 1.49
Draw 18.7% fair 5.35
MON win 14.3% fair 7.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 72.3% / 16.9% / 10.7%.
Expected Goals
ROM
2.35
—
0.79
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 MON | 12.0% | |
| ROM 1-0 MON | 10.2% | |
| ROM 2-1 MON | 9.4% | |
| ROM 3-0 MON | 9.4% | |
| ROM 1-1 MON | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).