ROM vs NAP
Roma (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 50.5% fair 1.98
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
NAP win 25.7% fair 3.89
Expected Goals
ROM
1.75
—
1.16
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 1-1 NAP | 11.0% | |
| ROM 2-1 NAP | 9.7% | |
| ROM 1-0 NAP | 9.5% | |
| ROM 2-0 NAP | 8.3% | |
| ROM 1-2 NAP | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).