ROM vs PAR
Roma (home) vs Parma · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 68.4% fair 1.46
Draw 19.3% fair 5.19
PAR win 12.3% fair 8.11
Expected Goals
ROM
2.12
—
0.66
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 42.3% | fair 2.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 PAR | 14.0% | |
| ROM 1-0 PAR | 13.2% | |
| ROM 3-0 PAR | 9.9% | |
| ROM 2-1 PAR | 9.2% | |
| ROM 1-1 PAR | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).