ROM vs SAS
Roma (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
ROM win 59.7% fair 1.67
Draw 21.5% fair 4.65
SAS win 18.8% fair 5.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.3% / 20.7% / 17.0%.
Expected Goals
ROM
2.04
—
0.96
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.3% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 SAS | 10.3% | |
| ROM 1-0 SAS | 10.1% | |
| ROM 2-1 SAS | 9.9% | |
| ROM 1-1 SAS | 9.8% | |
| ROM 3-0 SAS | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).