ROM vs SAS
Roma (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 65.8% fair 1.52
Draw 18.8% fair 5.31
SAS win 15.4% fair 6.49
Expected Goals
ROM
2.34
—
0.95
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.3% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 SAS | 10.2% | |
| ROM 2-1 SAS | 9.7% | |
| ROM 1-0 SAS | 8.8% | |
| ROM 1-1 SAS | 8.3% | |
| ROM 3-0 SAS | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).