ROM vs UDI
Roma (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 67.7% fair 1.48
Draw 18.2% fair 5.48
UDI win 14.0% fair 7.12
Expected Goals
ROM
2.37
—
0.88
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.9% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 UDI | 10.9% | |
| ROM 2-1 UDI | 9.6% | |
| ROM 1-0 UDI | 9.2% | |
| ROM 3-0 UDI | 8.6% | |
| ROM 1-1 UDI | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).