ROM vs VEN
Roma (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ROM win 73.3% fair 1.36
Draw 15.8% fair 6.32
VEN win 10.9% fair 9.17
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 78.4% / 14.0% / 7.6%.
Expected Goals
ROM
2.62
—
0.70
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.7% | fair 2.80 |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 2-0 VEN | 12.5% | |
| ROM 3-0 VEN | 10.9% | |
| ROM 1-0 VEN | 9.5% | |
| ROM 2-1 VEN | 8.7% | |
| ROM 3-1 VEN | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).