SAS vs ATA
Sassuolo (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 34.3% fair 2.92
Draw 23.4% fair 4.26
ATA win 42.3% fair 2.36
Expected Goals
SAS
1.51
—
1.75
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 ATA | 10.2% | |
| SAS 1-2 ATA | 8.9% | |
| SAS 2-1 ATA | 7.6% | |
| SAS 0-1 ATA | 6.7% | |
| SAS 2-2 ATA | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).