SAS vs BOL
Sassuolo (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 37.2% fair 2.69
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
BOL win 38.1% fair 2.62
Expected Goals
SAS
1.46
—
1.51
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 BOL | 11.3% | |
| SAS 1-2 BOL | 8.6% | |
| SAS 2-1 BOL | 8.2% | |
| SAS 0-1 BOL | 7.7% | |
| SAS 1-0 BOL | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).