SAS vs CAG
Sassuolo (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 45.6% fair 2.19
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
CAG win 30.1% fair 3.33
Expected Goals
SAS
1.66
—
1.30
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 CAG | 11.2% | |
| SAS 2-1 CAG | 9.3% | |
| SAS 1-0 CAG | 8.6% | |
| SAS 1-2 CAG | 7.3% | |
| SAS 2-0 CAG | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).